September 30, 2002

As we move on to Talladega this week I thought it would be interesting to look at some facts from the past in regard to Ford and Chevrolet. The analyzed figures start in May of 1975 and run up to April 2002.

There have been a total of 55 Winston Cup events at Talladega since 1975.

Wins

Chevrolet..23
Ford.......16

Out of the 55 events, Ford and Chevrolet combined have won 71% of the time.

Consecutive Wins

Chevrolet..7        (from 4/99 to 4/02)
Ford.......3        (from 5/75 to 5/76)

When we talk about consecutive wins we are suggesting is how many times the manufacturer managed to win over and over again before another manufacturer broke the streak.

Back to Back repeat Wins

Chevrolet..6 times
Ford.......5 Times

The back to back statistic considers how many times the manufacturer was able to back a win up with a repeat win over the course of the 55 considered events.

Wins from the Pole

Chevrolet..3
Ford.......3

Out of the 55 races only ten cars total that started from the pole won the event.

Win from the furthest starting position

Chevrolet..36th        (Jeff Gordon 4/00)
Ford.......18th        (Mark Martin 5/97)

This statistic considers how far back in the field a car started and went on to win the race.

Fastest Qualifying Speed

Ford.......212.809        (Bill Elliott 1987) (Unrestricted)
Chevrolet..not even close

This statistic considers the fastest speed at qualifying

Looking at past history it is easy to see that Chevrolet has been in a dominating stance since about 1995. We could argue the point of concessions from NASCAR given to manufacturers but a win will always be a win. Also noted is the fact that since 1999 the name Earnhardt came up more times that not and we know that DEI spends millions on their superspeedway (RAD) program.

I personally look to Ford for a few wins in the near future but a betting man would wager on Chevrolet to win the race this weekend. That is based on a 42 % winning average over the 55 events as compared to the Ford with 29%. All other makes and models make up the remaining 29%.

We picked the starting point of 1975 due in part because Ford showed three consecutive wins during that period and seemed to start the trend of back to back wins. Mercury could be considered a Ford product but was not considered. Also not considered were other GM products such as Buick and Oldsmobile. Buick did stack up four back to back wins from 5/81 to 8/82. Dodge and Plymouth had a fairly poor showing in the statistics with their last win coming in May of 1976 when Dave Marcis took the pole and also won the event.

Another issue that comes up in debate is the point that one manufacturer had more cars that started a race as compared to another. In the 2000 event 16 Chevrolets started the race and ford offered 17.

There is one additional trend that we did not consider and that is the luck factor. Riding with “Lady Luck” is a hard trend to spot and can be a real spoiler of averages. What if the best cars get taken out in some unforeseen event? What if it rains? Those are things that can not be controlled and is the reason we look back over many years to get the information that we desire to formulate an opinion.

So with all this information in hand we feel confident that you can make a qualified choice as to what car manufacturer will win the race this weekend. I will most likely go with the Ford because I pull for the underdog. We could all be fooled by the Dodge or even the Pontiac but as the above numbers suggest, that is unlikely to happen.

You can contact Joe at: Insider Racing News