December 6, 2008
By Rebecca Gladden
Did you know that 2008 was the fifth anniversary of NASCAR's Chase for the Championship?
The first Chase - NASCAR's modern-day version of a playoff season - was held in 2004, making this the fifth Chase since its inception.
My, how time flies.
I'd like to say Happy Anniversary, but I don't have very many "happy" feelings about the Chase.
Call me stubborn, but, even after five years, I find the whole Chase premise uninspired, unreasonable, and, most of all, completely unnecessary.
But that's just my opinion. I'm sure you have your own that may or may not be similar.
So rather than just editorialize, I thought I would present some indisputable facts about the Chase.
Let's start with this season. In 2008, there were three championship battles in NASCAR's three top racing series. Heading into the final race of the season, the points lead in each series was as follows:
- Truck Series: 3 points
- Nationwide Series: 56 points
- Cup Series: 141 points
And here's the margin of victory in each series for the title:
- Truck Series: 7 points
- Nationwide Series: 21 points
- Cup Series: 69 points
As you can see, the Nationwide and Truck series both had much closer points battles than the Cup series, which is the only one with a Chase format in place.
Beyond that, one of the most disturbing things about the Chase is how dismissive it is of the performance of teams and drivers during the first 26 races of the season. A few examples:
- In 2005, Tony Stewart had a 209-point lead heading into race number 26 at Richmond. After that race, his lead was reduced to 5 points because of the Chase - a net loss of 204 points.
- In 2007, Jeff Gordon had a 317-point lead heading into race number 26 at Richmond. Gordon started the Chase in second place, 20 points behind Jimmie Johnson - a net loss of 337 points. Gordon finished the season second in points to Johnson.
- In 2008, Kyle Busch had a 208-point lead heading into Richmond. He started the Chase with a 30-point lead - a net loss of 178 points. Busch ended the season 10th in points.
Talk about a redistribution of wealth.
The fact is, the Chase is simply not necessary to tighten the points battle or make the season more exciting.
Need more proof?
I recently came across a fascinating chart at Close Winston / Nextel Cup Championship Finishes, which graphically illustrates the points margin by which the championship has been decided for every NASCAR Cup season from 1975 through 2007.
Using this data, let's compare Jimmie Johnson's 69-point margin over Carl Edwards in 2008 with the 29 seasons (inclusive) from 1975 through 2003, before the Chase was installed.
Of those 29 pre-Chase championships, 13 were won by a closer points spread than Johnson's 69-point title win this year. That's almost half of the pre-Chase battles.
And if you average the margin of victory for the championship over the first five years of the Chase it shows a 49-point average, while the chart clearly demonstrates that many pre-Chase seasons had much narrower championship margins, including:
- 1979 - 11 points
- 1980 - 19 points
- 1981 - 53 points
- 1983 - 47 points
- 1988 - 24 points
- 1989 - 12 points
- 1990 - 26 points
- 1992 - 10 points
- 1995 - 34 points
- 1996 - 37 points
- 1997 - 14 points
- 2002 - 38 points
All of these close points battles were achieved without the aid of strange contrivances like the Chase to narrow the points margin or create artificial drama.
Yes, there were some years before the Chase when the championship was decided by a big margin and did not come down to the final race of the year. But those years were balanced out by the ones listed above.
More importantly, the old format properly rewarded teams that dominated the field over the entire 36-race season. As we've seen with the Chase, it essentially ignores the first 26 races and rewards one team that dominates just 10 races.
There's an old saying that you shouldn't fix what ain't broke. Truth is, there was nothing wrong with the old points system.
The Chase was labeled a success in its first year because TV ratings were up over the previous season. Now five years into it, the novelty has clearly worn off, and ratings have fallen off as well.
It's interesting to note that the championship points margin has trended upward almost every year for the past five years - from 8 points in 2004 to 35, 56, 77, and now 69 points in 2008. I'm not exactly sure what this signifies, but the trend seems inversely proportional to both the TV ratings and the level of excitement created by the Chase. If this model continues, it does not bode well for NASCAR's future.
So here's a suggestion that will not only be a great Christmas gift for the fans, but will create an instant "stimulus package" for the entire sport: Make an announcement - today! - that the Chase was an interesting five-year experiment, but that in hindsight you realize the old points system was just fine and that you are doing away with the Chase.
It will be an unprecedented gesture of good will and foresight guaranteed to jolt the sport back into economic prosperity, practically overnight.
At this point, what do you have to lose?
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The thoughts and ideas expressed by this writer or any other writer on Insider Racing News, are not necessarily the views of the staff and/or management of IRN.
