September 12, 2008
By Rebecca Gladden
As I noted in this column last week, most NASCAR pundits have been characterizing the Chase for the Championship as a two, at most a three-man race.
Again this week I've heard or read that description more times than I can count - with Jimmie Johnson now solidly in the equation on the strength of his recent back-to-back wins.
In a way, I guess it's understandable from a purely statistical perspective. Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson lead the series in points and have combined to win 18 of 26 races this year - almost 70% . Each regular season win affords bonus points, giving them a leg up on the field at the start of the Chase.
At the same time, it amazes me that so many people are so readily dismissive of drivers like Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon and Matt Kenseth - all past Cup champions - and guys like Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kevin Harvick and Greg Biffle, who seem more than capable of going on strong runs over the next ten races.
The fact is, in this or any other sport, if championships could be predicted solely on the basis of regular season performance, there would be no need to hold the Super Bowl, the World Series, the Stanley Cup, or any other playoff competition.
Case in point: In the four seasons since the Chase began in 2004, the points leader after Richmond has failed to win the title twice. In 2004, Jeff Gordon started the Chase in first and finished third, while Kurt Busch came from seventh to win the Cup. In 2006, Matt Kenseth was first after Richmond and Jimmie Johnson second - by the end of the Chase, those standings were reversed.
As part of Chase Media Day on Wednesday, I participated in a Satellite Media Tour with four of the 12 Chase contenders: Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards, who comprise two-thirds of this so-called three-man race for the Chase; and Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon, currently 10th and 11th in points, who've been winless so far this year.
I asked each driver the same question: How do you respond to the characterization of this year's title hunt as a three-man race?
Here's what they said:
- Kyle Busch: "I think that the first three guys have been the guys that have been there pretty much all year long. Carl and myself - we've been battling it out since the beginning of the year. Jimmie also was fast in California - he struggled a little bit in Vegas and Atlanta, but he's been there since the second part of the season. To have those guys battling it out with myself and, of course, the rest of the guys - you never know who's going to come on strong. To be characterizing it as a three-man race - I don't think it's right."
- Carl Edwards: "It feels good for now, but I'm real aware of the fact that if Matt Kenseth or Kevin Harvick or any of those guys goes on to win the next couple of races in a row, all of a sudden they'd forget all about this three-man Chase and focus on that. This sport is tough in that things change very quickly with momentum and things like that. It would be nice if it were just three of us, but I know it's not."
- Tony Stewart: "It's obvious that there's three drivers that are standing out over the other nine drivers in the Chase so far this year, but until you're mathematically out, anything can happen. One race can totally change the complexion of the Chase for the Championship. Until they say you're mathematically out, you're still in it."
- Jeff Gordon: "I think the one thing that's truly exciting about the Chase is the fact that anybody that's in it has a legitimate shot at it. There's nothing wrong with having favorites, and I think if you look at the top three guys, they've got to be favorites just because of their performance up to this point in the season. But, you can say what you want, write what you want - whatever. Until the Chase starts, really, in my opinion, it's anybody's championship to win."
Indeed, it is anybody's championship to win, and I hope the "three-man race" set remembers that.
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