August 16, 2009
By Kim Roberson
Kim Roberson
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We are four races away from the kick-off to the Chase for the Championship, and we still don’t have a firm view of just who will be making up the Chase field beyond the top 8 or 9 teams.
I like the lack of clarity on the Chase teams, however it amazes me how many fans I have heard complaining about the Chase and how “unfair” it is just because of the number of high profile teams that are out of the Chase.
Since the Chase began in 2004, only two teams have been there every year: the #17 of Matt Kenseth and the #48 of Jimmie Johnson. That means that every year, we have had drivers out of the Chase that you would never have expected to be out of it.
Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, and Dale Earnhardt Junior have missed the cut at least once in the last six years, and Junior is going to miss it again this year. He won’t be alone as he watches from the outside; Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton, who have both been in the Chase more often than not, will be on the outside looking in this year. Kyle Busch, who has three wins, is in danger of not making the Chase unless he turns his luck around.
With four weeks to go, we have five drivers less than 100 points from losing their position in the Chase, and another three (four if you are being generous) chomping at the bit to replace them.
It will come down to talent, luck and being consistent as we make our way through Michigan, Bristol, Atlanta (in its new day and time) and Richmond to the first race of the Chase in New Hampshire.
Consistency is the key word in any major sport. “Slow and steady wins the race” might not sound like it applies to NASCAR, but in a way it does. Winning earns you the most points, but if you also have finishes at the opposite end of the field, then your average will be mid-pack.
Mark Martin, who is currently 11th, and Kyle, who is currently 13th, are prime examples of that. Martin has four wins and Kyle has three, and yet they are both struggling to be in that top-12 because they have also had races this year where they finished in the 30’s and 40’s.
Tony Stewart, on the other hand, has two victories, but has been consistent throughout the season. In 22 races, he has 18 top-10 finishes, with an average finish of 7.2. Kyle only has 7 top-10’s, and an average finish of 17.3, and Mark has 11 top-10’s, but an average finish of 16.5.
A simple look at the numbers of the history of the sport will show that without the Chase, you could more often than not hand the trophy to the Champion well before Homestead. This year, without the Chase, you could look at Tony Stewart and think that, other than maybe Jimmie Johnson, no one in the top-10 would have a chance of catching him without the Chase. He already has 260 points up on Jimmie, and 340+ on everyone else.
Never in the history of the sport, has a driver come from further back than 10th, to take the Championship with 10 races to go. So NASCAR is actually doing two teams a favor by giving them a running chance by including them in the top-12.
Sure, Jeff Gordon might have had his 5th championship if not for the Chase. Then again, maybe he wouldn’t have. It seemed like Kyle Busch had the Championship locked up last year in the old style of points….and then he crashed and burned in the last 10 races.
After six years, you might think that fans would have gotten used to the points situation, and have figured out how it all works. In 2004, we started off the “Chase era” with the top-10, and then added the 11 place bonus to reward the guy who just missed the chase. Then, because fans complained that 10 was too small a field, NASCAR expanded it to 12 drivers, and took away the bonus for the guy who just misses the field.
Now, some fans have always claimed the Chase format isn’t fair, but it seems the number of people complaining depends on which drivers are on the outside looking in.
Wild card entries have been suggested. Fan vote drivers have been suggested. Allowing any past Champion to be grandfathered into the Chase has been offered as an idea.
How will any of those actually improve the Chase field?
The Chase is the equivalent to the NFL or MLB or NBA or NHL playoffs. Just because a team had a great start to the season doesn’t ensure that they will make the playoffs in any of those other sports. Just as if a team has a strong surge to the playoffs after a crummy start to the season, doesn’t ensure them a place in them either. The teams that make the playoffs are the ones who played strong yet steady over the entire season, and then kicked it into high gear when the playoffs began to win the title. And that is the way it should be.
The Chase is here to stay, and there is no reason to change it. Even if it means that the guy who is the most popular driver, or the winningest driver, doesn’t walk away with the trophy after Homestead, or that the guy who goes into the Chase leading ends up last of the 12 after 10 races. If you want to win the title, you have to be consistent to get there. And until a team figures out how to make that happen, they more than likely won’t be hoisting the trophy over their head in November.
One final side note and it harkens back to safety in NASCAR.
I have written columns in the past praising NASCAR for their safety innovations, including the design of the COT. It was proven, yet again, last weekend just how important these safety innovations are to the well-being of a driver. You would never expect a road course to be a track that would have a major crash, but in the last two years, we have had two major crashes, involving multiple cars at Watkins Glen.
I thought last year’s wreck at the entrance to pit road was bad, but last weekend’s crash between Sam Hornish, Jeff Gordon, and Jeff Burton was almost as wicked as the ones we see at Talladega and Daytona. The fact that all three men walked away, albeit a bit sore and worse for wear, proves yet again that it is more important for a car to be built soundly and safe than for it to look “nice”.
And I would rather everyone walk away than have a cooler, sleeker looking car…because if the driver doesn’t climb out of the car after crashes like that, then it won’t matter how the car looks, because there won’t be anyone to drive it.
The thoughts and ideas expressed by this writer or any other writer on Insider Racing News, are not necessarily the views of the staff and/or management of IRN.
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