June 14, 2008
By Brenda Benedict
We are nearly halfway through the 2008 NASCAR season and I’ve been waiting for someone to mention this touchy subject. But I haven’t heard anyone bring it up. When it first occurred, a few of you wrote about it but there has been nothing in the press since then.
I’m talking about Dale Earnhardt Jr’s appearance on the cover of Sports Illustrated Magazine on February 18, 2008.
In that issue of the magazine, Junior was on the cover, stretched out on the hood of the #88. He looked relaxed, anticipating the upcoming race at Daytona.
There is a long held belief by many people that appearance on the cover of Sports Illustrated brings a curse to the person pictured. It is called the SI Jinx. The belief is that the person or team pictured will experience bad luck of some kind in the near future which usually means diminished performance.
If the SI Jinx actually exists, we could expect that Junior would be having a bad season. And some would say that is exactly what is happening because he has not won a point’s race this year.
Dale, Jr. has yet to put a check in the win column and many people are using that statistic as a measure of his success.
Greg Engle of Cup Scene Daily said that Junior is always the bridesmaid instead of the bride. “That bridesmaid’s dress he’s been wearing is getting kind of old and his 4th place finish Sunday looked nice, but just isn’t the right fit for him.”
But a closer look at Dale, Jr.’s statistics gives me a different take on his performance.
We are at the halfway point in this race season. Yet if you look at any measure of Dale’s performance, except wins, he is already reaching the numbers he had for last year.
Several categories show an interesting trend in Junior’s statistics. Last year’s numbers include the entire season and the 2008 numbers are at the halfway point, yet they are nearly the same and in some cases better than the totals for 2007.
2007 (36 races) 2008 (14 races)
Top 5 finishes 7 6
Top 10 finishes 12 10
Laps led 433 527
Statistics for average start position and average finish position also show considerable improvement. Last year his average starting position was 14.7 compared to 10.7 this year. Junior’s average finishing position last year was 18.6 and this year sits at 11.2.
A very telling statistic is a category called ‘running at finish’. Last year he was running at the finish of the race 75% of the time. The 2008 number for ‘running at finish’ is 100%. That fact alone increases his probability of scoring a win because he is out there on the track.
By the way, Jimmie Johnston, Dale’s Hendrick Motorsport teammate, did not appear on the SI cover but there was an article in the same issue that predicted Johnson would be a three time Cup champion this year. SI predicted “he is supremely positioned to become NASCAR’s first three-peat champion since Cale Yarborough did it 30 years ago.”
A look at Jimmie’s statistics shows a definite decline in his numbers. At this halfway point in the season, his numbers are not half of what they were last year. In 2007 he had 10 wins, 20 top 5 finishes and 24 top ten finishes. Thus far this year he has 1 win, 4 top five and 6 top ten finishes. He is nowhere near meeting last year’s accomplishments.
He is maintaining his percentages when looking at running at finish where last year he was ‘running at finish’ in 89% of the races compared with 93% this year. These numbers mean that he may be on the cusp of a win and the second half of the season he may make improvements that allow him to change the numbers in the win column.
The trends in Jeff Gordon’s statistics are mirroring those of Jimmie Johnson’s in many ways. However, a real telling number is Jeff’s ‘running at finish’ statistic. Last year he was ‘running at the finish’ in 97% of the races and so far this year he is ‘running at the finish’ in 79%. That number alone decreases the possibility of a win because to win you must be present on the track at the end of the race.
Dale, Jr. may be a bridesmaid to the winners but the fact that he is showing great improvement and is finishing 100% of the races, indicates that he is available to ‘catch the bouquet’ and actually become the bride in the future and begin to put numbers into the win column.
The thoughts and ideas expressed by this writer or any other writer on Insider Racing News, are not necessarily the views of the staff and/or management of IRN.
