October 26, 2005

By Rebecca Gladden

Six races down, four to go.

Heading into Martinsville, all ten Chase drivers were within a one-race striking distance of first place. After the race, only five can make that claim.

Under the current points system, the maximum number of points a driver can earn in a single race is 156. A driver is credited with 180 points for winning a race and can add five bonus points for leading a lap and five more for leading the most laps - for a maximum total of 190 points in a single race. The fewest points a driver can earn is 34 for finishing the race in last place with no bonus points. The difference between the two, 190 minus 34, is 156.

After the fifth Chase race at Lowe's, the points spread between the ten Chase drivers had narrowed to just 142 points, well within the 156-point total a driver could garner in a single race. Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson were tied for first; all drivers in the top seven were within 100 points of the pair, with Kurt Busch 142 points back in tenth.

The ten Chase drivers had mixed results at Martinsville, however, and the result is a much greater disparity between first and tenth. While half of the Chase drivers finished 12th or higher, the other half struggled at the Virginia short track, finishing no higher than 19th (Rusty Wallace) and as far back as 34th (Mark Martin).

As a result, only the top five Chase drivers - Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards - are still within 156-points of each other. Stewart regained the points lead over Jimmie Johnson in second (-15), Ryan Newman in third (-63), Greg Biffle in fourth (-83) and Carl Edwards in fifth (-149). The other five drivers are now more than one race back, with Rusty Wallace in sixth (-166), Mark Martin in seventh (-170), Matt Kenseth in eighth (-172), Kurt Busch in ninth (-172) and Jeremy Mayfield in tenth (-216).

Realistically, it is improbable that any pair of Chase drivers will deliver a first-last tandem finish with just four races left in the season. The largest one-race move among the top ten occurred in the first Chase race at Loudon, where Newman and Stewart finished 1-2. Newman climbed seven spots from tenth to third in the standings, although he gained only five points on leader Stewart. Just three races later at Kansas, despite winning the race and leading the most laps, Mark Martin was able to gain only two spots in the standings, moving from ninth to seventh - due in large part to Stewart's solid fourth-place finish.

Stewart has had four top-five finishes in the six Chase races, including three second-place finishes at Loudon, Talladega and last week at Martinsville. Stewart entered the Chase first in points, but fell as low as fifth after his 18th-place race finish at Dover, the second playoff race. He has been either first or tied for first ever since, despite a 25th-place run at Lowe's.

This week the series visits Atlanta Motor Speedway, where Jimmie Johnson won the fall race last year. In the spring race, Johnson finished second, while Stewart came in 17th. Biffle and Newman finished third and fourteenth respectively.

As it stands now, the Championship will likely go to one of the top four drivers after Martinsville: Stewart, Johnson, Newman or Biffle. Looking at their career average finishes at the final four tracks, Johnson has the best numbers on paper, with a combined career average finish of 9.4 at Atlanta, Texas, Phoenix and Homestead. Stewart is next with 12.8, then Biffle at 19.2 and Newman at 20.4. But Stewart has more Cup wins at the four remaining tracks - at total of four, with one victory each at Atlanta and Phoenix, and two at Homestead-Miami. Greg Biffle has two wins, one apiece at Texas and Homestead; Johnson, the aforementioned win at Atlanta, and Newman one win at Texas.

What makes racing exciting, of course, is that the numbers don't always tell the tale. Most fans remember last year's unpredictable season finale at Homestead-Miami, in which Kurt Busch rallied from a mid-race deficit to take the title. At Lap 93, Busch experienced tire trouble and slipped to third in Championship points behind Gordon and Johnson. At other times during the race, Johnson had the points lead; but Busch's fifth-place finish allowed him to finish eight points ahead of Johnson and sixteen ahead of Gordon for the Cup.

With four races left in the Chase, it is still anybody's Championship to win - or lose.

The thoughts and ideas expressed by this writer or any other writer on Insider Racing News, are not necessarily the views of the staff and/or management of IRN. Although we may not always agree with what is said, we do feel it's our duty to give a voice to those who have something relevant to say about the sport of auto racing.