June 28, 2006

By Rebecca Gladden

Rebecca Gladden

Sunday's road course competition at Infineon Raceway was the 16th of NASCAR's 36-race season.

That leaves 20 races in the 2006 Nextel Cup season, but after just ten more the regular season ends and the "Chase for the Championship" begins. At that point, only the top ten drivers in the point standings will compete for the Cup title. The remaining drivers will be trying to win races, but will not be vying for the championship.

The Chase for the Championship format is now in its third season, and if the past two years are any indication, it's never over till it's over when it comes to making (or missing) the Chase.

In 2004, rookie Kasey Kahne was in the top ten heading into the 26th race at Richmond and seemed poised to compete in the inaugural Chase session, but fell out by race's end, replaced by Jeremy Mayfield whose victory that day was enough to propel him into the top ten.

In 2005, it was Jamie McMurray who appeared headed for the Chase before the green flag fell at Richmond. At the end of the day, McMurray was out and Carl Edwards was in.

Last-lap shuffles in the point standings usually affect only one or two drivers on either side of 10th place heading into Richmond. Drivers in the top five or six are untouchable by that point, and those in the top eight are pretty secure as well.

So it's not too early to start looking at who is in the top ten and how they've been running this year compared to last, now that the summer racing stretch is underway.

1. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson has been ranked 1st in points for 14 out of 16 weeks this year and currently enjoys a 101-point lead over second-place Matt Kenseth. Johnson leads all drivers with 13 top-ten finishes and has three wins, including the Daytona 500.

2. Matt Kenseth: As a past Cup series champion, you might expect to see Matt's name in the top ten list, but last year at this time Kenseth was 20th in points and seemed doubtful to make the Chase. The 17 team put together a string of strong finishes throughout last summer, boosting them into the Chase by the cutoff date. Kenseth is leading all drivers in top-five finishes this year with nine.

3. Kasey Kahne: The third-year Cup competitor leads all drivers with four wins in 2006. Last year at this time Kahne was 21st in points, and was 20th when the Chase arrived.

4. Mark Martin: Martin was supposed to be retiring at the end of the 2005 season, but stayed an extra year at the request of team owner Jack Roush. Martin was 5th in points at this time last year and barring unforeseen circumstances he will be in the Chase again.

5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: Junior suffered through a miserable 2005 season, notching just one win and missing the Chase by seven spots. Earnhardt had only three top-fives last year; by comparison, he has five already this year.

6. Jeff Burton: Another driver way ahead of last year's pace, Burton was outside the top-20 when the 2005 Chase arrived. Burton's ten top-ten finishes this season tie him for 2nd among all drivers in that category.

7. Tony Stewart: The reigning Nextel Cup champ has fallen five spots in the points since the end of April. Stewart is known as a driver who surges later in the year, so while it is not time to panic, he would prefer not to fall any further in the standings.

8. Jeff Gordon: Gordon surprised nearly everyone by missing the 2005 Chase, ending the season in 11th-place. Gordon fell out of the top ten a few weeks ago, but Sunday's victory at Infineon bumped him three spots in the standings to 8th.

9. Greg Biffle: Biffle had the points lead after 16 races last year and ended the season in 2nd place. He got off to a slow start in 2006 with a 30th-place finish in the Daytona 500, but has climbed back into the top ten, though still off the pace from his six-win season in 2005.

10. Kevin Harvick: Harvick has not made the Chase in either of the past two seasons, although he has been in the top ten several times. The fact that Harvick and teammate Jeff Burton are both in the top ten at present is good news for Richard Childress Racing.

The thoughts and ideas expressed by this writer or any other writer on Insider Racing News, are not necessarily the views of the staff and/or management of IRN. Although we may not always agree with what is said, we do feel it's our duty to give a voice to those who have something relevant to say about the sport of auto racing.