November 8, 2007
By Rebecca Gladden

Rebecca Gladden

Sometimes I think NASCAR fans - and the NASCAR media - are a fickle bunch.

For most of the 2007 Nextel Cup season, phrases like, "When it's your year, it's your year," were bandied about in reference to Jeff Gordon.

Now that the points lead has shifted to Jimmie Johnson with two races to go, folks are deserting HMS Gordon faster than rats from the proverbial sinking ship.

While I understand the temptation to get caught up in the swell of momentum that has carried the 48 team to three straight race wins and the top of the Chase standings, it is foolish to write Jeff Gordon off.

Though Johnson has nine victories in 2007 compared to six for Gordon, there are some other noteworthy stats to consider. Gordon has more top-5 and top-10 finishes than any other driver this year, even Johnson. Jeff has 20 top-5s compared to 19 for Jimmie, and 28 top-10s compared to Johnson's 22. Gordon has led 1300 laps this year; Johnson, 1233.

Heading into Richmond in September, the last race before the start of the Chase, Gordon had a 317-point lead over second-place driver Tony Stewart. At the time, Johnson was sixth in the standings, 430 points back.

And it's not like Gordon has run poorly in the Chase. He has five top-5s and seven top-10s in eight races. His only finish outside the top-10 was an 11th at Dover, while Johnson has had two 14th-place Chase finishes. Gordon's average finish in the Chase is a 4.6 - Johnson's a 5.2.

Additionally, though the value of considering the "old" points system is arguable, that method of determining a champion favored consistency over the course of the entire 36-race season. Under the old points, Gordon would still be first in the standings with a 400-point lead over Johnson, who would be second.

With just two races left in 2007, the question comes down to which of two factors will prevail: Gordon's better season overall, or Johnson's hot streak in the latter half of the Chase.

Trying to answer that question based on stats alone is a Solomon-like task. Gordon's average finish at Phoenix is second-best among active drivers - an 8.2 over 17 races. The only driver with a better average finish at PIR is - you guessed it - Jimmie Johnson, with a 7.2 in eight starts. Gordon won at Phoenix in April, but Johnson finished second in this event last fall.

There is no clear frontrunner at Homestead either. Neither Gordon nor Johnson has won there, and while Gordon has the edge in the average finish category - an 11.4 in eight starts compared to Johnson's 14.5 in six - Johnson is taking the car he won with at Atlanta and Texas to the season-ending race.

Meanwhile, let's not forget that while Johnson is the reigning Nextel Cup champion, Gordon has four Cup titles under his belt, along with a plethora of other accomplishments in multiple forms of racing dating to his early childhood.

Jeff Gordon knows how to win championships, and Jimmie Johnson is a formidable foe.

I'm just not ready to crown Johnson king yet.

This year's championship could be decided by a gargantuan crash, a loose lug nut, or any one of a thousand variables in between.

Now deep in the season, no one but Jeff Gordon really knows how worried he is about the possibility of a long-awaited fifth Cup title slipping through his grasp.

But to hear him tell it, Gordon remains confident about his chances: "If it comes down to being smart and staying out of trouble, I think we still have a great shot at the championship."

The thoughts and ideas expressed by this writer or any other writer on Insider Racing News, are not necessarily the views of the staff and/or management of IRN.