November 6, 2009
By Rebecca Gladden
NASCAR instituted the current Chase for the Championship points format in 2004, partly in response to the lackluster ending of the 2003 season.
That was the year when Matt Kenseth won the title. Kenseth won on points despite only having one race win all year. Ryan Newman won eight races the same year, but finished sixth in points; Jimmie Johnson, with three wins, finished second behind Kenseth.
Kenseth definitely had the most consistent team in 2003 and ended the year with an average finish of 10.2. In fact, he dominated the points to the extent that he carried an almost insurmountable 228-point lead into the next-to-last race at Rockingham. After finishing fourth there, his lead was 226 points and he was crowned the 2003 NASCAR champion with one race left in the season.
The goal of the new points system was to help create more drama in the final third of the NASCAR season, particularly as the sport goes head-to-head with the World Series and the start of the NFL season for headlines and TV ratings.
Toward that end, the revised format has worked so far, with each of the past five seasons' titles being decided at the year's final race in Homestead-Miami - sometimes by a margin as slim as just eight points.
But this year, with the seemingly unstoppable Chase performance of Jimmie Johnson and the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports team, it could be 2003 all over again.
Not that that's a bad thing - especially for Arizona's loyal NASCAR fans, Phoenix International Raceway, and the surrounding towns and communities.
"To have the Sprint Cup title - or any of the three major NASCAR championships - decided next weekend would certify PIR as a true championship track," said Griff Hickman, Manager of Communications at Phoenix International Raceway. "We're thrilled with the possibility that our fans may be a part of a historic achievement for Jimmie Johnson, as well as a record fourth Truck Series championship for Ron Hornaday, or the first title for Kyle Busch in the Nationwide Series."
Indeed, all three achievements would be momentous in their own right, but none more so than Johnson being crowned champion at the conclusion of the Sunday, November 15 running of the Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500.
With a current points lead of 184 over Mark Martin and 192 over Jeff Gordon, Johnson's numbers break down as follows: If he finishes tenth or better in the last three races of the year, he will win the title. But, if he has a 162-point lead when the checkered flag falls in Phoenix, the championship is his. All he would have to do is show up at Homestead and start the car.
And considering Johnson's record at PIR, it's not hard to imagine this happening. Johnson leads all drivers in wins at Phoenix including three straight in 2007-2008, has the most wins overall among active drivers and the best average finish at an astonishingly low 5.4 in 12 starts. He has never had a DNF in Phoenix and has never finished lower than 15th. Over the course of his last eight PIR starts, his average finish is just 3.3.
While a fourth straight Jimmie Johnson title would be historic on its own accord, winning it in Phoenix would also make the record books as the first Chase championship to be awarded before the final race of the year.
And, for a Phoenix-based NASCAR writer like me, it will be something special to see.
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