July 31, 2009
By Rebecca Gladden
Just after the 2008 Cup Series Awards Banquet was over, I turned my attention to the task at hand: contributing to the 2009 NASCAR Preview Issue of a national sports magazine.
This was the second year in a row that I participated in the special issue, and one of the things the contributing writers are asked to do is predict our Top 30 rankings for the upcoming season.
Now, anyone who knows me as a NASCAR writer knows that I am not particularly sanguine about making predictions. Generally speaking, I don't think those of us in the media have any greater foresight or wisdom than our readers do, other than the fact that we might have a little more access to the garage.
On the other hand, I have been handicapping NASCAR races for over two years for two different betting websites (I don't wager, just predict), and I seem to have a pretty good overall record.
Either way, it is part of the job, so I always give it my best effort.
In my experience, making good predictions requires an eclectic combination of statistical data, common sense, and garage gossip, along with a healthy dose of innate intuition.
That recipe led to me making what I felt was a pretty bold prediction at the time: Mark Martin finishing the season first in points and winning the 2009 Cup championship.
After all, Martin ended the 2008 season ranked 28th in points with DEI. He hadn't won a single Cup race since 2005. And, in 27 years of full- and part-time Cup racing, he's never won a championship - though he did finish second four times.
So, I thought picking Mark Martin to win the 2009 Cup series championship was a risky choice, but I had a pretty strong feeling about it and went with it anyway.
Now, to be clear, I know Martin is currently ninth in points and, at times this season, has been outside the top 12 altogether.
On the other hand, he has won more races than anyone else in '09 - four in 20 races - and appears to be a solid lock for the Chase.
Those four wins are going to be extremely valuable when the Chase begins in September, because each one affords Martin ten bonus points to start the playoffs. If the Chase started today, for example, Martin would be seeded first among the 12 competitors, with Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch tied for second, and Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth tied for third.
Of course, the Chase doesn't start today. And with six races left to run in the regular season, a lot can change.
But I'm glad Mark Martin is leading the series in wins. At least I don't look too ridiculous for having picked him last November to win the championship in his new Hendrick Motorsports ride.
This week, Martin and the rest of the Cup boys head to Pocono, one of only five tracks where he has never won. He's bringing the same chassis he used last Sunday at Indy, finishing a close second to Jimmie Johnson.
Though Martin describes 2009 as his "best year ever," he's taking nothing for granted in terms of the Chase. His outlook heading to Pocono is to imagine that he's still 13th in points, scratching and clawing to make his way back into the top 12 by winning as many races as possible.
"I don't feel comfortable about points, but I'm not thinking about them either," said Martin. "I just want to keep thinking that we're on the outside looking in. We race to win - and that's been working for us."
It's worth noting that in August at Bristol, Martin will make his 1,000th career NASCAR start across all three racing series. Only two other drivers - Richard Petty and Michael Waltrip - have achieved that impressive goal.
If Martin can also find a way to win the 2009 Cup championship, he'll need to find a whole new description for his "best year ever."
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