June 7, 2007
By Rebecca Gladden

Rebecca Gladden

"If the Chase were held today ..."

Such a phrase tends to grate on one's nerves when overused during race broadcasts throughout the year. But there are a few mileposts during the NASCAR season when it's worth pausing to consider where we've been so far and where we're headed - such as this, the midway point to the Chase cutoff.

Under the current points system instituted in 2004, the NASCAR Cup season is divided into two segments: The first 26 races, often called the regular season, and the final 10 races, known as the Chase for the Championship.

Both segments feature a full field of 43 drivers competing against each other for individual race wins and points. But after 26 races, only the top 12 drivers in points will contend for the Nextel Cup title.

The inclusion of 12 drivers in the Chase is new this year. The previous cutoff was 10, and though there was a provision to include more than 10 drivers if others were within 400 points of the leader, that factor never actually came into play and was eliminated as part of this year's revisions.

Also new this year is the addition of 10 bonus points at the start of the Chase per race won during the regular season. For the past three years, the regular season points leader started the Chase with 5050 points and the remaining drivers were separated by five points each down to 10th place. This year, all 12 drivers will start the Chase with 5000 points plus a 10-point bonus for regular season race wins.

In other words if the Chase were held today, Jimmie Johnson would start off with 40 extra points for having won four regular season races and Jeff Gordon 30 extra points for three wins. Six other drivers would receive 10 bonus points each.

The impact of these bonus points could be huge in the 2007 Chase. In two of the last three seasons the championship was decided by 35 points or less. In 2004 for example, Kurt Busch won the title by just eight points over Jimmie Johnson, but Johnson had eight wins that season compared to Busch's three.

Additionally, if the Chase were held today ...

• It would include nine Chevys, two Fords, one Dodge and no Toyotas.

• Six teams would be represented: Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch for Hendrick Motorsports (Chevy); Jeff Burton, Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick for Richard Childress Racing (Chevy); Denny Hamlin and Tony Stewart for Joe Gibbs Racing (Chevy); Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards for Roush Racing (Ford); Kurt Busch for Penske Racing (Dodge); and Mark Martin for Ginn Racing (Chevy).

• Mark Martin would be the only driver in the Chase who has not competed in all 13 races. Martin is currently twelfth in points despite running just 10 races as a part-time driver this year. Still, he outranks 21 drivers who have competed in all 13 races.

• Kurt Busch could fall out of the Top 12 this week if NASCAR levies a points penalty for Busch's dangerous actions on pit road during Monday's Dover race following an on-track clash with Tony Stewart.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr., currently 15th in points, would be 10th if not for a 100-point penalty incurred at Darlington for unapproved rear wing mounting brackets.

• Only three drivers could say they've made the Chase all four seasons since its inception - Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth and Mark Martin. As Martin is statistically unlikely to make this year's Chase due to his part-time schedule, that would leave just Johnson and Kenseth as four-time Chasers.

• Several drivers who have been in the Chase at least once would be excluded this year, including Ryan Newman, currently 16th in points, Greg Biffle (18th), Elliott Sadler (20th), and Kasey Kahne (29th).

• In 2005 Matt Kenseth set somewhat of a precedent, recovering from a 700-point deficit after 14 races to make the Chase. Currently four drivers outside the top 12 are within a 700-point margin: Martin Truex, Jr., Jamie McMurray, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., and Ryan Newman. Bobby Labonte and Greg Biffle are just beyond striking distance at -719 and -720 points respectively.

• There would not be a rookie in the Chase this season, as the highest ranking rookie, Juan Pablo Montoya, is currently 22nd in points. In 2006, Denny Hamlin became the first and only rookie to make the Chase.

• Teams who have excelled with the Car of Tomorrow during the regular season will likely continue to perform well in the Chase, since five of the 10 Chase races will be run with the COT.

• The driver in 13th-place at season's end will apparently not receive the same recognition in the 12-man Chase as the driver in 11th did in the 10-man Chase. Previously the 11th-place driver was acknowledged as the highest finishing non-Chaser, with an invitation to the Nextel Cup awards banquet in New York and a sizable monetary bonus. It's been reported that this will no longer be the case.

There will be plenty of jockeying for spots as the summer and the NASCAR season heat up and many comers and goers among the top 12 between now and then.

Meanwhile, NASCAR execs are crossing their fingers that the changes to this year's points system, including more regular season points for race wins and bonus points at the start of the Chase, will shift the emphasis from consistency to winning - a change that fans have requested for years.

In a few short months, we'll see how it all plays out.

The thoughts and ideas expressed by this writer or any other writer on Insider Racing News, are not necessarily the views of the staff and/or management of IRN.