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Is There a Formula for Winning the Chase?

An Opinion




September 17, 2012

By Matthew Pizzolato
Matthew Pizzolato



Now that NASCAR's post-season is officially underway, talk has already begun about which driver has the best chance for winning it all and the odds makers already have favorites.

Yet if history has proven anything about what it takes to win The Chase, it's that there is no set formula.

Last season proved that consistency doesn't always win it. Carl Edwards had the highest average finish during the history of NASCAR's post season, yet failed to win the Championship.

Tony Stewart won five of the final ten races of the year and tied with Edwards in points, but took the title by virtue of having the most wins. However, even Stewart doesn't know exactly what it takes to win The Chase.

"There is no formula. There is no right or wrong answer. It all depends on what the 11 other guys that you are racing with, do each week. It strictly is dictated by that. There isn’t a set formula," Stewart was quoted as saying during a press conferenence this weekend at Chicagoland Speedway. "There is no blueprint, there is no certain way of doing it. It’s just who can put together the ten best weeks and there is no set way of doing it. There is no logical answer I guess."

If consistency is no longer key to winning a championship, then drivers must resort to doing whatever it takes to acquire every single point.

"I think probably the one thing that everybody is probably more focused on after last year is the fact that every single point is going to be a big deal," Stewart said. "Whether it’s leading a lap to get a point you know if you might stay out on a caution just to lead a lap and if you are not running well you might... if you get in a crash you can get that thing fixed and you are going to fight for every spot you can get just to get that one extra point. We all know what the value of it is, but as far as the approach each week you do the same thing the last ten weeks that you do the first 26 weeks that gets you here."

If anyone knows what it takes to win it all during the Chase, it's Jimmie Johnson. After all, he won five consecutive Chases in a row, and he's always excelled at 1.5-mile tracks and The Chase is full of them, which are Johnson's bread and butter. Since all three of his Hendrick teammates qualified for The Chase, the odds of a Hendrick driver bringing home the title are pretty good.

Yet going into the first race of the post season, Johnson's chances for winning it all this season have been one of the least talked about although he's got the highest odds in Vegas.

Other storylines have dominated, from this being Dale Earnhardt Jr's best legitimate title shot to Jeff Gordon's new mustache.

While there are a myriad of factors that play into having a successful Chase run, there is one thing that anyone who wants to win NASCAR's championship has to do. They must beat Jimmie Johnson.



If you would like to learn more about Matthew, please check out his web site at matthew-pizzolato.com.



You can contact Matthew Pizzolato at .. Insider Racing News

You Can Read Other Articles By Matthew Pizzolato

The thoughts and ideas expressed by this writer or any other writer on Insider Racing News, are not necessarily the views of the staff and/or management of IRN.

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