November 2, 2011
By Chuck Abrams
Tony Stewart got the edge over Jimmie Johnson at Martinsville and Johnson only lost a couple extra points that the win would have given him. Johnson would still be in sixth place even if he had won the race. What has to be more worrisome is the way he lost the race -- on the restart with everything on the line.
But the next three races are not at Martinsvillle style tracks. Far from it as a matter of fact. They are three tracks where Johnson runs well and has a better average finish over the past five years -- than either Carl Edwards or Tony Stewart.
Carl’s best track coming up is Homestead and his worst track is Texas -- which is hard to believe because it is a track where he has three wins. But he also has three DNFs. It is also a track where earlier this year, he finished third to Matt Kenseth, who also needs a good run to resurrect any Chase hopes he might have.
Smoke started 26th and finished 12th earlier this year at Texas. That won’t win him a title. He needs to run up front every race and he needs to beat Carl by a few points each race if he is to take the title away from him.
With that said, Smoke’s best chance to grab the lead may be at Texas, where he historically averages a few positions better than Carl. But Carl is not having an average year.
Phoenix may be the difference maker track this year. Smoke is slightly better at Phoenix than Carl, but the newly paved track may throw a few curves into the historical averages. Carl has a win and nine top-10 finishes over the past ten years at Phoenix. He started on the pole this spring but got caught up in an early accident with Brian Vickers. I don’t think that will happen again.
Both Johnson and Stewart will need to make hay at Texas and Phoenix because Edwards is the top rated driver at Homestead.
For Kevin Harvick, he needs to really step it up over the next three races as well. Homestead is also his best track (by average finish) but he does have two victories at Phoenix to his credit. Unfortunately, Johnson has four, so he knows his way around the track pretty well.
Kenseth is not out of this race but he will need to bring his "A" game every race. As good as he can be at Texas, he is no better than average at Phoenix. He has a win and seven top-10 runs there, but he also has two DNFs. He ran 12th there earlier this year, but that won’t get the job done.
Keselowski has a poor track record at the next three tracks. But the kid did not get his game on until just this summer and has continued to surprise everyone. He is hanging in there during the Chase but his top-15 finishes are not going to get him anywhere. Keselowski has to win a race and then finish in the top-5 in the other two to have any hopes of pulling off a stunning upset. He certainly has it in him, but the law of averages is not on his side. But that has never seemed to stop him this year.
Personally, I think this is a race between Carl, Smoke and Harvick. But Johnson can be so good and the next three tracks are some of his best, so you have to wonder just how close can he get? Matt Kenseth can bring it the next three races as well so you can’t count him out.
But they both have to have Carl, Kevin and Smoke to have issues and finish behind them in the points. Running second or third to Carl won’t cut it. Nor will winning a race but having Carl finish second or third. Carl will need to have a bad race, and maybe two, for anyone to have a serious shot at him by Homstead.
And wouldn’t it be nice to have a real battle for the Cup at Homestead?
Lemme know your thoughts.
Drive fast, turn left and keep the shiny side up.
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