August 20, 2008
By Chuck Abrams
Well after Michigan it sure looks like a three way run for the title between Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson.
Carl made a major statement by winning his fifth race of the season and inching ever closer to Kyle Busch. Busch will still lead in the Chase by virtue of his -- at least eight wins, but Edwards is serving notice that he is not going to fade away.
Johnson is in third right now but only has two wins to his credit. But he also has twelve top ten finishes to Edwards’ seventeen and Busch’s fifteen. Dale Earnhardt Jr. also has twelve top ten finishes but only one win to his credit.
The next few races are critical for the top ten contenders and especially for the top five.
Jeff Burton and Earnhardt are separated by the slimmest of margins and another win could determine the seeding for them. Greg Biffle has two wins to their one and is behind that duo by only 125 points right now.
Jeff Gordon also has two wins but has nearly 300 points between himself and Earnhardt. Kasey Kahne also has two wins but is over 30 points behind Gordon. Only four other drivers have wins this year and only one of those, Denny Hamlin, is currently in the top twelve.
So unless things change dramatically over the next few races, look for things to shake out pretty predictably for the Chase.
This is not to say that no one else has a shot, but the season is shaping up pretty cleanly so far and there isn’t much to lead me to believe that someone else is going to jump into a position that we have not seen before.
Of course any of the top twelve have a shot, but only the top seven have even a glimmer of hope and only the top five really have a sniff of the title as they are currently running. It would take a major move on a team's part to suddenly start winning races, let alone nail a string of top five finishes to challenge Busch, Edwards and Johnson right now.
Could Earnhardt or Burton cut loose and gain some momentum? Sure, but they would need a series of wins in addition to top five finishes to gain on the bonus wins Busch and Edwards will have. Plus they would need help with some serious trouble for the top three to make additional headway and be considered a threat for the title.
I am happy to say that at least we can see a possible three way bid for the title in the upcoming Chase. That will be a nice change of pace from a single dominant car that runs away with the title. That could still happen and it might just be a Toyota that does it. If you are an regular reader of my commentary, look back to March of this year when I wrote several articles on Kyle Busch’s feats and Toyota’s horsepower advantage, gas pedal shims not withstanding. The Busch/Gibbs/Toyota trifecta seemed a bit too magical even back then.
It may be hard for some to imagine, if not swallow, a Toyota championship this soon after entering the Cup Series. Only a major league jump by Ford or Chevy team will keep Rowdy Busch from sitting at the head table in New York in December.
Let me know your thoughts....
Drive fast, turn left and keep the shiny side up.
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