August 18, 2010
By Chuck Abrams
I have been waiting for Kevin Harvick to run a statement race almost all year. Of course he has been leading the points battle the entire season and being about as consistent as one could ask for, but I felt like something was missing.
In the early and middle part of the season, Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson went on a tear of race wins. Kurt and Kyle Busch both won a couple and often seemed to have momentum on their side. Jamie McMurray won the Brickyard 400 and seemed to have picked up something he had lost since the opening race of the season. Jeff Gordon looked like a driver about to win a race. as did Smoke (Tony Stewart).
And then came Michigan.
Michigan -- a track that RCR never did run really well at, until Sunday when Kevin Harvick stood up and took over a race that no one seemed to want to win.
While Harvick sealed his Chase appearance with the win, to me it was more about Harvick getting a win at a place that he did not run well at. This was a statement race, Harvick said, "Guys, I am in this thing to win it."
When his competition ran poorly on Sunday, he put his foot on their throats and made it known in no uncertain terms that he is the man to beat for the Chase in 2010, not Jimmie Johnson. You think Kevin Harvick doesn't know this is a mental game as well as a race?
Johnson and Hamlin still have more bonus points than Harvick by way of their five victories to his three, but Harvick could easily win at Bristol, Atlanta or Richmond to further put everyone on notice. If there is a chance to take a risk for the win at any of the final three races, the No. 29 team will do it.
But that aside, let me play my own devil's advocate.
Smoke, Johnson and Hamlin could all go on a streak of wins once in the Chase. All three drivers could win one of the final three races to position themselves even better entering the Chase. But they would have to all start being much more consistent to beat Harvick in the long run.
Jeff Gordon is still a threat to win a race or two, but he has not been on a winning streak in a long time. Gordon is second in the points right now, but since he is winless, he will be at least 50 points behind the leader when the Chase begins. Not insurmountable, but not great news for the current version of Jeff Gordon and the No. 24 team.
Carl Edwards is starting to make some noise. He is still winless, but has improved significantly in the past few weeks. A win could set him up a little better heading into the Chase but he will have to outpace Harvick with consistency, as well as win a race or two, to have a shot at the title.
Jeff Burton has, at times, looked like a threat to challenge for a win or two. But running up front most of the race and then finishing in the top 15 has hurt him all season long. Jeff would have to get streaky not only with wins, but with his overall finishing effort. We are unlikely to see that in my opinion.
Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle and the Busch brothers are all capable of a win in the final 13 races, but none of them have proven themselves consistent top five finishers this season. Of the four, only Kyle Busch remains a threat.
That leaves us with Clint Bowyer and Mark Martin juggling for 12th place. My money is on Bowyer. But I am only wagering a penny. Bowyer had been as bad as he has been good this year and that is not a recipe for a title -- or threatening for one. Martin has struggled since Hendrick moved a fair amount of his team to resurrect the No. 88 team. That really hasn't worked out well for either team has it?
No one can deny Mark's effort but the fact is if he makes the Chase, he will be danged lucky. And then he will finish no better than tenth. A sad state of affairs given what he accomplished last season.
So what does this all mean? Nothing really. Just one guy's opinion.
Let me know your thoughts.
Drive fast, turn left and keep the shiny side up.
The thoughts and ideas expressed by this writer or any other writer on Insider Racing News, are not necessarily the views of the staff and/or management of IRN.
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