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Drivers On The Outside Looking In

An Opinion



March 18, 2009

By Chuck Abrams

Chuck Abrams
Tradition says that after race five (Bristol) the top twelve in points are pretty much set –– so here we are heading to Bristol with a lot on the line. Bristol is a big bull ring that taxes equipment as well as the crews and drivers. So there is a lot at stake this weekend…if you believe in tradition.

Jeff Gordon is the current points leader and runs well at Bristol with five poles and one win over the past ten years. His average finish is 11.9. That should be good enough to keep him in the top ten barring catastrophic failure early in the race.

Clint Bowyer is not even supposed to be in second place right now. He is an average finisher (14.7) at Bristol and that should be enough to keep him in the top twelve as well.

I assume Kurt Busch will be racing for his sponsor (Food City) this week and will be feeling strong after his Atlanta win. Busch has five wins here in the last ten years and usually finishes in the top 15. Good enough.

Carl Edwards has two wins and also finishes in the top 15. Should be safe for this week as well.

Matt Kenseth is among the favorites to win this race with two victories and an average finish of 12.2. He may even move up a spot in the points this week.

Tony Stewart has one win here but averages no better than 17th for a finish. He does have six top tens here so he should stay in the top 12 this week.

Kyle Busch has only one win here and while he doesn’t always qualify well, he does finish in the top 15. Of a special note, he has no DNFs at this track which means he should be a safe bet for the tradition.

Kevin Harvick has the best average finish of all drivers the last ten years with just one win but 11 top ten finishes and one DNF. The way he has been running, a good pick for a victory and leaving in the top twelve.

Kasey Kahne is not a great racer at Bristol with three DNFs and an average finish of 21/7. Ugh. But he did manage a seventh place finish at this race last year and he is slightly better at the spring race than the summer event. This race will test his top twelve staying power.

Greg Biffle probably had this date circled on his calendar. Biffle is the second highest rated driver over the last ten years and runs better in the spring. He has no wins but he also has no DNFs. I look for Biffle to move up in the standing after this week.

Brian Vickers has been strong all year but he struggles at Bristol with no top ten runs, one DNF and an average finish of 26th. He may very well drop out of the top twelve this week unless he pulls a magic rabbit out of his hat.

David Reutimann doesn’t run well here either with an average finish of 22.5. Not good enough to keep the tradition rolling this week my man.

Jimmie Johnson is an average finisher here at 17th. But he has only one DNF and that may be enough to kick him into the top twelve. Even if not, I do look for Johnson to break with tradition and be there when it counts.

Denny Hamlin is another driver that does well here averaging a 14th place finish. He placed sixth here last year. Should be a shoo-in for the top twelve.

Jeff Burton won this event last year but that was his frost win. Usually you look for Burton with the 20th place finishers. He needs this race badly if he wants to stay in sniffing distance of the top twelve.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. finished fifth last year and needs this race badly. He is better at Bristol than his spring race numbers show. Earnhardt has a long way to go to get near the top twelve so a win here will be the medicine the doctor ordered. That aside, he is a long shot to be in the Chase if tradition holds.

Mark Martin has not had the best of luck here and he is a guy that needs some good luck right now. This may not be his race and he is a real long shot to make the Chase if you follow tradition.

Spoilers this week could be Aric Almirola, Bobby Labonte, Jamie McMurray, Juan Montoya and Casey Mears.

Put that in your fantasy racing pipe and smoke it.

OK, now weigh in with your thoughts.

Feel free to send Chuck your thoughts on this and other race topics at Insider Racing News.
You Can Read Other Articles By Chuck Abrams

The thoughts and ideas expressed by this writer or any other writer on Insider Racing News, are not necessarily the views of the staff and/or management of IRN.

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